تحليلات الاسبوع- Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Weekly Review of S&P500 index, gold and Brent
Monthly: ADX still had not responded to a two-month’s surge of the index, which can mean lack of trend capacity and anticipate a downward reversal.
Weekly: the oscillator has signs of bearish divergence, although simultaneous growth of ADX/RSI and unconfident weekly pinbar can be a trap for those huntering for reversal.
Daily chart: resistance is around the upper Bollinger band (2278.9), support is at 2222.5 (middle band). The key indicators are in extreme zone, so this corridor is likely to be maintained.
Expectations: now, we are waiting for touch of level 2278.9 and then a downward rollback to the target 2222.5.
Solutions: sales from 2278.9 to 2222.5
Monthly: despite strenuous attempts of buyers who can visually lift the price up to 66.80 (the upper Bollinger band), Brent does not have trend support from ADX. This, in turn, can lead to continuation of the flat around the middle band (50.00)
Weekly: the top envelope was broken a very unusual way: by a gap! Personally, I have seen this happen not very often, so this setup is unsafe. However, it makes sense to monitor Buy signals at the middle Bollinger band (49.08).
Daily chart: at this local frame, Brent is at the upper range of Bollinger envelope (52.07-57.93). Northern momentum is still present, but here ADX did not support bulls as well. So we expect return to 52.07 after touch of 57.93.
Expectations: drop to 52.07 (probably, after touch of 57.93)
Solutions: sales from 57.93 to 52.07
Monthly: the price has confidently turned to the bottom Bollinger envelope. We can expect it to fall to 1026.03 (bottom band)
Weekly: a better shaped support around 1082.24. Bullish pattern Over&Under can also be noticed around this zone. Therefore, in this area I would recommend to take profit on sales and closer look to purchases.
Daily chart: the inside bullish bar formed from the bottom Bollinger band is dangerous for sales. Therefore, we must proceed from the possibility of a rollback to the middle band (1177.16)
The main scenario – an upward rollback to 1177.16 and then continuation of drop to 1128.26 with the target at 1082.24
The alternative scenario – a direct drop to 1082.24
Solutions: sales from 1177.16 to 1082.24.